The increasing district heating energy consumption of the building sector in China: Decomposition and decoupling analysis

Abstract

The district heating system accounts for 40% energy consumption of the building sector in China and still has tremendous growth potential due to the urbanisation. However, few studies have conducted explicit quantification on the drivers and the sustainable development of the district heating energy consumption of the building sector (DHEB) in China, although previous aggregation analysis on whole building energy service could convey implications on the district heating systems. This study investigates the driving factors of the DHEB in China between 2004 and 2016 using a decomposition analysis that incorporates effects of energy mix, heat production technology structure, energy intensity, heating area, and population. The decoupling status between the DHEB and gross domestic product (GDP) in China is then analyzed based on the Tapio decoupling index, along with the contributions of each driving factor to the decoupling. The results show that the effects of district heating area and population dominate the increase in the DHEB, while the heating energy intensity is the strongest factor reducing the DHEB. In addition, the shares of coal and heating boilers positively contribute to the increase in 2004–2008, and have a negative effect in 2008–2016. The complete reverse trend is found in the shares of gas and combined heat and power (CHP) during the same period. These results are largely associated with the implementation of “coal to gas” and the “elimination of old boilers” pushed by the Chinese government. Furthermore, a weak decoupling effect is mainly found between China’s DHEB and GDP from 2004 to 2016. The heating energy intensity is the strongest factor promoting the decoupling, while the growth of the district heating area and population leads to a weak decoupling.