Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a worldwide challenge effecting millions of people in more than 210 countries, including the Sultanate of Oman (Oman). Spatiotemporal analysis was adopted to explore the spatial patterns of the spread of COVID-19 during the period from 29th April to 30th June 2020. Our assessment was made using five geospatial techniques within a Geographical Information System (GIS) context, including a weighted mean centre (WMC), standard deviational ellipses, Moran’s I autocorrelation coefficient, Getis-Ord General-G high/low clustering, and Getis-Ord G_{i}^{*} statistic. The Moran’s I-/G- statistics proved that COVID-19 cases in datasets (numbers of cases) were clustered throughout the study period. The Moran’s I and Z scores were above the 2.25 threshold (a confidence level above 95%), ranging from 2274 cases on 29th April to 40,070 cases on 30th June 2020. The results of G_{i}^{*} showed varying rates of infections, with a large spatial variability between the different wilayats (district). The epidemic situation in some wilayats, such as Mutrah, As-Seeb, and Bowsher in the Muscat Governorate, was more severe, with Z score higher than 5, and the current transmission still presents an increasing trend. This study indicated that the directional pattern of COVID-19 cases has moved from northeast to northwest and southwest, with the total impacted region increasing over time. Also, the results indicate that the rate of COVID-19 infections is higher in the most populated areas. The findings of this paper provide a solid basis for future study by investigating the most resolute hotspots in more detail and may help decision-makers identify targeted zones for alleviation plans.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the recent greatest threats encountering the globe, has been declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) since March 2020
This study applied a different of spatiotemporal and statistical methods including as a calculating geographic distribution (CGD), pattern, and clustering analysing, all of which are important to understand the spread of COVID-19 in Oman from 29 April to 30 June
One probable reason for the continued increase in COVID-19 infections and the vicissitudes and shifts between wilayats stated in this research is the imperfection of the control strategies currently being practiced restricting the spread of the virus since the first case was identified on 24 February 2020
Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the recent greatest threats encountering the globe, has been declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) since March 2020. The ongoing global interest of this massive health risk is motivated mainly by the accelerated rate of spread this pandemic, besides its substantial health, socioeconomic, and even political consequences over both developed and developing countries (Torales et al 2020; Coccia 2020). According to the WMO Covid-19 dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/), to date (17th November), the number of confirmed cases across the globe exceed 55 million, while deaths approach 1.4 million (Riou and Althaus 2020). According to Cutler and Summers. (2020), the estimated costs of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US may reach $16 trillion (approximately 90% of the annual gross domestic product), exceeding the cost of the Iraq War and approaching.
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