Spatiotemporal analysis of Rabies outbreaks in herbivores in Tocantins as a subsidy for the detection of epizootics

Abstract

An effective epidemiological surveillance system is essential to help control rabies, as it allows the early detection of unexpected increases in the disease as well as the identification of geographic areas with populations that need greater attention from the Official Veterinary Services (OVS). The present study aimed to comprehend the behavior of rabies outbreaks in herbivores, through a temporal analysis using a control diagram based on moving averages, and a spatial diffusion mapping. A spatial clustering analysis in rabies outbreaks was performed using both nearest neighbor analysis and ST-DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise). Additionally, associated risk factors and the effectiveness of rabies vaccination was assessed using a chi-square (χ²) test and odds ratios as the association measure. The study detected rabies outbreaks in state of Tocantins in certain years, especially in 2015. Spatial analysis revealed clustering (nearest neighbor index = 0.555; p < 0.05) in intermediate regions of Araguaína e Palmas. Risk factors identified included shelter linked to relief, vegetation, and anthropic factors. The findings of this study have significant implications for the control of rabies in herbivores, providing valuable information to guide vaccination efforts and the control of hematophagous bats, thus aiding in disease prevention and control actions not only Tocantins state but also in other geographic regions grappling with paralytic rabies.