Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and extreme indices in the Antalya Basin, Turkey

Abstract

The Antalya Basin is characterised by high spatiotemporal variability of precipitation. Despite the basin’s importance for sustainable water use and its specific place in socio-economy of Turkey, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation are not thoroughly studied. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and extreme precipitation indices (i.e. annual maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days) in the basin for the period 1970–2017. To this end, trend detection methods—Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall, and Sen’s slope estimation methods—were employed with change-point detection methods—Pettitt, Buishand, Standard Normal Homogeneity, Pruned Exact Linear Time, and Wild Binary Segmentation. Further, continuous wavelet analysis was used to analyse the multi-scale resolution features of precipitation. Our results suggested three basin-wide distinct periods with the specific spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and extreme indices among the sub-periods. The characteristics of the variability of precipitation and extreme indices for the sub-periods were discussed. The outcomes from this study could be useful to decision makers for sustainable water management and mitigate unfavourable impacts of flood and drought threats in one of the most vulnerable and sensitive basins to the impacts of climate change of the country.