Abstract
In the context of climate change, the impact of hydro-meteorological extremes, such as floods and droughts, has become one of the most severe issues for the governors of mega-cities. The main purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation indices over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, between the near (2021–2050) and intermediate (2051–2080) future periods with respect to the baseline period (1980–2009). The historical extreme indices were calculated through observed daily rainfall data at 11 selected meteorological stations across the study area. The future extreme indices were projected based on a stochastic weather generator, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which incorporates climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Eight extreme precipitation indices, such as the consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R25mm), maximum 1 d precipitation amount (RX1day), maximum 5 d precipitation amount (RX5day), very wet days (R95p), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) were selected to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean changes of extreme indices in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency. The statistical significance, stability, and averaged magnitude of trends in these changes, thereby, were computed by the Mann-Kendall statistical techniques and Sen’s estimator, and applied to each extreme index. The results indicated a general increasing trend in most extreme indices for the future periods. In comparison with the near future period (2021–2050), the extreme intensity and frequency indices in the intermediate future period (2051–2080) present more statistically significant trends and higher growing rates. Furthermore, an increase in most extreme indices mainly occurs in some parts of the central and southern regions, while a decrease in those indices is often projected in the north of the study area.
Highlights
According to the Global Risks Report 2019 published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), extreme weather events and the failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation have remained as the top three risks in terms of likelihood and impact on the environment and human being [1]
As a result of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), the evidence has shown that a growing shift of temperature and humidity at global near-surface and troposphere layer could be potential for precipitation changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events around the world [4,5,6]
This study is focused on assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation over Ho Chi Minh City caused by climate change
Summary
According to the Global Risks Report 2019 published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall or heat waves) and the failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation have remained as the top three risks in terms of likelihood and impact on the environment and human being [1]. For consolidating the definition of climate extreme indices on a global scale, as well as facilitating research to compare differences in climate extremes across different study areas, a set of 27 extreme climatic indices computed from daily temperature and precipitation data series has been proposed and highly recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices [21]. Instead of analyzing by individual model, a methodology of multi-model ensemble mean is applied to compute future precipitation data for the assessment of the impact of climate change
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
