Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery

Bülent Saglam,Ömer Kücük,Bahar Dincdurmaz,Ali Ihsan Kadiogulari,Ertugrul Bilgili

doi:10.3390/s8063970

Abstract

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Highlights

In the Mediterranean Basin fire plays a major role in many ecosystem processes
Decision makers must take into account the fire risk and danger potential that can lead to large scale severe forest fires as a result of forest growth [4, 5, 6], climatic change, land-cover change [7, 8] and long-term fire suppression [9]
Fire risk and danger potential have generally been associated with stand fuel characteristics, topographical features and land use

Summary

Introduction

In the Mediterranean Basin fire plays a major role in many ecosystem processes. Recent statistics indicate that over 2,000 forest fires occur in Turkey every year, with an annual area burned ranging from 10 000 to 14 000 hectares [1]. Fire risk and danger potential have generally been associated with stand fuel characteristics, topographical features and land use. These include fuel types, canopy closure, fuel characteristics over the stages of stand development, horizontal and vertical fuel (biomass) continuity, terrain structure and underlying landform, and the distribution of settlement and agricultural areas across the forest [10, 11, 12]. It is extremely important to develop methods that can help managers accurately and timely assess fire danger potential [15] and predict the probability of fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale [16]. Satellite imagery and airborne sensors, on the other hand, have been successfully used for estimating, surveying and mapping forest fuels [2, 16,17,18,19] and assessing fire risk on large temporal and spatial scales [20] in a timely, easy and cost effective fashion

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