Spatiotemporal analysis of CO2 emissions and emission reduction potential of Beijing buses using smart card data

Abstract

Human activities, primarily carbon dioxide emissions, have undeniably caused global warming. The transportation sector contributes about a quarter of global CO2 emissions. While replacing traditional buses with electric ones has reduced emissions, it is crucial to consider the indirect emissions resulting from electricity consumption. This study proposes a framework for modeling bus emissions using smart card data, integrating spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and emission reduction potentials. Our analysis reveals that routes spanning 10–30 km contribute to 81% of total bus emissions, with an average emission rate of 56.2 gCO2/per-km for residents traveling by bus. Bus emissions also exhibit cyclical variations during holidays, weekdays, and weekends, indicating spatial clustering and trends. Although the area within Beijing's 4th Ring Road constitutes only 13% of the total area within the 6th Ring Road, it generates almost half of the CO2 emissions. With urban expansion, total bus emissions increase gradually, but emission intensity decreases. This study emphasizes the potential for reducing emissions through improved public transportation operations. It recommends fully electrifying the bus fleet and employing low grid emission factors, which could reduce emissions by up to 71% compared to diesel options. Electrification of buses and optimizing power generation on the grid are essential priorities for emission reduction.