Spatio-temporal variation and dynamic risk assessment of drought and flood disaster (DFD) in China

Abstract

It is important to understand the variations of Drought-Flood-Disaster (DFD) from the past to future for disaster management decision-making under the backdrop of global warming. This study explored the spatio-temporal variations of DFD risks in China from the past (2000–2020) to future (2020–2100) based on the natural and socio-economic datasets. The main findings include: (1) The spatial pattern of disaster vulnerability decreased from 2000 to 2100. The overall vulnerability distribution showed a spatial pattern of high east and low west, and its eastern distribution presented high north and low south. (2) The drought hazard danger degree showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing with obvious spatial heterogeneity. The flood hazard danger degree had a decreasing spatial distribution from southeast to northwest, with an overall gradually increasing trend. (3) The DFD risks showed a spatial pattern of high east and low west, and were more closely related to disaster vulnerability. Overall, the flood and drought risks had good consistency at the highest level (VI), mainly distributed in the North China Plain, Northeast Plain, eastern Sichuan, and southern Guangdong. This level means that the most severe damage to life and property will occur in these regions. (4) The DFD showed the direction of “north(east)-south(west)”, and the main axis of the ellipse moved north eventually. The DFD hot spots were mainly distributed in North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The DFD cold spots were mainly distributed in the southwest, Qinghai-Tibet region, and Gansu province.