Abstract
Pakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-temporal trends of droughts in Pakistan over the period 1902–2015 using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the Spatial “K” luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was employed to regionalize droughts into five contiguous zones. The run theory was then applied to each zone to identify drought events and characterize them in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Modified Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify statistically significant trends in SPEI and drought characteristics in each zone. It was found that the southern areas of Pakistan, encompassing Sindh and most of Baluchistan, have experienced a decrease in SPEI, indicating a drying trend. Central Pakistan has witnessed a wetting trend as demonstrated by an increase in SPEI over time, whereas no statistically significant trend was observed for the northern areas of Pakistan. On a zonal basis, the longest duration drought to occur in Pakistan lasted 22 months in zone 5 (Sindh) from 1968 to 1970. In addition, the drought of 1920 and 2000 can be said to be the worst drought in the history of the region as it affected all the zones and lasted for more than 10-months in three zones.
Highlights
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of climate change
The zones produced after running the SKATER algorithm to a large extent reflect the climatological regions that exist in Pakistan
Droughts are natural hazards that may aggravate in the coming years, especially because of the effects of climate change
Summary
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of climate change. Global warming has led to worrisome increases in temperature across the country. The frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves are increasing [1]. Drought is a frequent occurrence, occuring in about 4 out of 10 years in Pakistan [2]. The nation faced its worst drought—since its creation in 1947—in 1998, which lasted up till 2002 [3,4].
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