Abstract
In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The region was divided into six zones using Spatial “K”luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method, and run theory was applied to characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test applied to SPEI indicate prevailing significant negative trends (dryer conditions) in all the zones. Balochistan experienced its most severe droughts in the 1960s and around 2000. The effects of climate change are also evident in the fact that all the long duration droughts occurred after 1960. Moreover, the number of droughts identified by 3-month SPEI showed a significant increase after 1960 for all six zones. The same trend was found in the 12-month SPEI but for only three zones.
Highlights
Of all the hazards that wreak havoc across the globe, droughts are perhaps the least understood and the most damaging [1]
This study aims to extend the Pakistan-wide work of Jamro et al [26], which concluded that central Balochistan, along with Sindh, is the most vulnerable area to droughts and requires further investigation
It can be considered an advanced version of the popular drought indicator, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [7,27], as it incorporates the effect of temperature when modeling droughts
Summary
Of all the hazards that wreak havoc across the globe, droughts are perhaps the least understood and the most damaging [1]. One factor that makes studying droughts so problematic is that no single definition exists for drought [3] This creeping phenomenon, as it has been called due to its slow onset, means different things to different water users. A drought might occur when the water level in the reservoir drops below certain thresholds. For a meteorologist, it might be the departure of rainfall from the long-term average for a region. It might be the departure of rainfall from the long-term average for a region For a farmer, it might be the depletion of soil moisture such that it no longer supports the growth of crops. Droughts have been categorized into different types depending on which stage in the hydrometeorological cycle the effects are felt
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