Spatio-temporal patterns and cascading risks of embodied energy flows in China

Abstract

The increasingly complex interrelation between energy use and trade is challenging the secure management of energy. However, limited knowledge of the cascading risks of embodied energy in trade is understood. An embodied energy network of China's interprovincial trade was established based on China's multiregional input-output tables for 2012 and 2017. The pivotal nodes, main flows, and flow trajectories within the embodied energy network were identified using the complex network model. Subsequently, the cascading effects within the embodied energy network were simulated using a cascading failure model. The results indicate that a substantial portion of embodied energy flows is concentrated within a few provinces and sectors. Within the provincial-sectoral network, approximately 50 % of the edges carry 90 % of the embodied energy flows. Sectors exhibiting robust influence, significant intermediary capacity, and pronounced centrality assume pivotal positions within the network. Due to cascading effects, a supply crisis in one crucial province or sector can spread quickly, affecting the entire energy network. This study contributes to ensuring regional energy supply security and offers fresh insights into mitigating cascading risks in the energy system within and beyond China.