Spatio-temporal distribution and transmission dynamics of sheep pox and goat pox diseases in South Wollo zone north East Ethiopia

Abstract

Sheep pox (SP) and goat pox diseases (GP) are highly transmittable, malignant systemic and economically significant caused by the genus Capripoxvirus. using The spatio-temporal distribution of SP and GP outbreaks in South Wollo zone from September 2013 to December 2019 was determined retrospectively using SP and GP outbreaks report Kombolcha regional laboratory. A follow up study was also conducted from December 2019 to March 2021 to estimate the transmission parameter of SP and GP outbreaks in South Wollo zone of Kutaber district, Amhara region. Tissue samples from outbreaks in Kundi and Haroye kebele of Kutaber district were taken to confirm the outbreak by conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The transmission parameters were estimated using Generalized linear model (GLM) based on stochastic Susceptible Infected and Recovered (SIR) model. In South Wollo zone, 249 SGP outbreaks were reported from 2013 to 2019. The incidence differed between months, with a highest peak in October and November and a lowest peak in February. The basic reproduction ratios (R0) of the SGP disease outbreaks were 1.84 and 3 for Haroye and Kundi kebele outbreaks, respectively. The disease is distributed throughout the zone and the investigated active outbreaks had moderate transmission between animals. Hence, it needs a great effort which focuses on the application of control measures that reduce the transmission of the disease.