Spatio-temporal assessment of multi-scalar meteorological and hydrological droughts over Bundelkhand, India

Abstract

Drought, a recurrent natural hazard, significantly impacts agricultural productivity, water resources, and socio-economic development, especially in semi-arid regions like Bundelkhand in India. Here, frequent droughts challenge the livelihoods of its predominantly agrarian population. These challenges, compounded by poverty, land degradation, and resource conflicts, have profound implications for local communities and the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Understanding the spatiotemporal conditions of drought is crucial for effective planning and management. This study evaluates meteorological and hydrological drought attributes at a high resolution within the region, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) across a range of temporal scales. Findings indicate moderate droughts are more probable than severe or extreme droughts, with SPI-12 showing up to 20% probability over some grids, implying drought occurrence once in five years. Trend analysis reveals decreasing SPI trends in certain northern districts during monsoon months, suggesting more frequent droughts in vulnerable areas. The study also finds higher drought probabilities with longer SPI durations, highlighting significant temporal and spatial variability. Additionally, the applicability of SDI using GloFAS discharge data is evaluated, offering an alternative in the absence of gauge data. The combined SPI and SDI analysis underscores higher and more extensive drought probabilities for longer periods, emphasizing the need for multi-temporal scale assessment for effective drought management. This study enhances understanding of drought characteristics in the region, aiding policymaking for drought management and supporting evidence-based strategies to achieve SDGs, particularly those related to water security, climate resilience, and sustainable development.