Spatio‑temporal analysis and driving forces of urban ecosystem resilience based on land use: A case study in the Great Bay Area

Abstract

Ecosystem resilience plays a vital role for security and resilience in the urban system which experiences the combined effects of anthropogenic activities and natural disasters. Nonetheless, there is currently no unified indicator for assessing urban resilience. Therefore, this study aims to examine the changes of ecosystem resilience in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area (GBA) based on land use, using the framework of resistance, adaption, and elasticity. The study's results revealed that between 2000 and 2020, the increase in ecosystem resilience in peripheral GBA cities outpaced the decrease in central cities, leading to a yearly rise in overall ecosystem resilience. Nighttime light (NL), population density (PD), urbanization rate (UR), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were the primary driving factors influencing resistance and elasticity resilience in the GBA, thereby shaping overall ecosystem resilience. Findings from the multi-scale geographical weighted regression (MGWR) analysis demonstrated that ecosystem resilience decreased as NL, PD, and UR increased, while it exhibited an increase in areas with higher NDVI. This study contributes to the improvement of urban resilience in cities by providing targeted strategies, expediting the development of resilient cities, and offering theoretical insights for land management, urban planning, and policy formulation.