Urban resilience assessment and its spatial correlation from the multidimensional perspective: A case study of four provinces in North-South Seismic Belt, China

Abstract

Modern cities are facing increasingly complex challenges, and assessing urban resilience is crucial to improve their ability to withstand various types of shocks and disasters, especially in the China's North-South Seismic Belt with frequent tectonic activities and natural disasters. To address this issue, this study determined the weights of the assessment system based on the entropy weight method, and evaluated the urban resilience of four provinces in China's North-South Seismic Belt in multiple dimensions from the perspectives of society, economy, infrastructure, and ecology. Furthermore, we systematically explored the spatiotemporal trends of urban resilience and its spatial correlation from 2011 to 2021. Lastly, the assessment results were validated and analyzed by four historical earthquake cases using national polar-orbiting partnership - visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (NPP-VIIRS) nighttime light data. The findings reveal that the average urban resilience index increased from 0.027 to 0.058 from 2011 to 2021, signifying a remarkable surge of 115.42%. Sichuan emerged as a consistent frontrunner in terms of urban resilience. Overall, the study area shows a spatial distribution pattern of higher urban resilience in the east and lower resilience in the west, due to the larger population and more developed economy in the east. However, the south has a higher average annual growth rate, while the north has a lower average annual growth rate. A notable observation is the gradual reduction in the coefficient of variation of urban resilience from 0.823 in 2011 to 0.751 in 2021, indicating a decline in the disparity of resilience levels. Meanwhile, Moran's I gradually increased from 0.2017 in 2011 to 0.4476 in 2021, signifying a progressive intensification in the spatial correlation of urban resilience and an evident propensity toward aggregation. By selecting shifts in the total nighttime light index (TNLI) during representative earthquake incidents as an indirect gauge of urban resilience levels, this study finds congruence with the assessment outcomes, thereby further substantiating the precision of the urban resilience evaluations. Policymakers should prioritize the allocation of resources to less resilient cities to improve their ability to withstand and recover from disaster events. The urban resilience assessment system in this study, despite its multidimensionality, may still not be able to fully cover all the factors affecting urban resilience. This study provides a significant decision-making basis for policymakers in urban development and disaster response, as well as a useful reference for building a more robust and sustainable urban future.