Spatial-temporal-multicomponent analysis of the characteristic of the incidence of hepatitis E in Zhejiang Province

Abstract

Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of hepatitis E (HEV) in Zhejiang Province. Methods Data related to HEV cases in Zhejiang Province in 2015 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in the Information System of Disease Prevention and Control of China. The ArcGIS (10.0) was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation, R software was used to explore the spatial-temporal-multicomponent of the incidence based on the epidemic component, autoregressive component and endemic component. Results There were 1 738 cases identified and the incidence of HEV in Zhejiang Province in 2015 was 3.16/105. There were obvious regional clustering of the cases (P < 0.05), the northwest regional of Zhejiang had higher incidence of aggregation. The impact of the epidemic component was strong in most of the districts of Hangzhou Municipality, parts of Huzhou and Jiaxing Municipality. The impact of autoregressive component was strong in the main urban area of Hangzhou Municipality, Lin'an and Wenlin. The impact of endemic component was relatively lower and autoregressive component was the same in a whole area. Conclusion The spatial-temporal characteristic of the incidence of HEV in different areas are heterogeneous, it is suggested that the risk factors maybe different and targeted strategies should be taken to control the disease. Key words: Hepatitis E; Spatial-temporal-multicomponent model; Spatial autocorrelation