Spatial-temporal evolution of pumped hydro energy storage potential on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its future trend under global warming.

Abstract

Global warming has brought extensive and far-reaching impacts on human life and production. A pumped hydro energy storage contributes to the large-scale development of renewable energy and serves as an important measure to mitigate climate change. Despite considerable efforts in estimating the potential of the pumped hydro energy storage, research gaps in response to global warming remain. In this regard, this study conducts a novel assessment of the pumped hydro energy storage's potential from a dynamic perspective, taking the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area. The spatiotemporal evolution of the pumped hydro energy storage's potential over the past few decades (the 1970s-2017) is analyzed, and its response to precipitation is identified innovatively. On this basis, the trend in the future period is further predicted for the first time, which is divided into near, short, medium, and long terms. Results show that the pumped hydro energy storage potential has a generally upward but not monotonic trend, decreasing from the 1970s to 1995 and then rising more dramatically, with slopes of 5548.5 ± 69.2 GWhyr-1 and -238.1 ± 90.4 GWhyr-1. In the majority (68.6 %) of lake basins (68.6 %), changes in precipitation positively contribute to the pumped hydro energy storage potential, resulting in a noticeable growth in the future. Under the representative concentration pathway of 8.5, the mean potential density is projected to rise by 23.4 %, 25.2 %, 28.3 %, and 30.6 % in the near, short, medium, and long terms, respectively. This result indicates that high-intensity greenhouse gas emissions under this scenario will lead to a greater potential for the pumped hydro energy storage in the future.