Spatially explicit simulation of long-term boreal forest landscape dynamics: incorporating quantitative stand attributes

Abstract

Spatial simulation models of long-term dynamics of forest landscapes are needed for investigating how different actual or potential disturbance regimes determine the structure and dynamics of forest landscapes. We propose a new approach to bridge the forest stand and landscape processes. Hence, while interested in the boreal forest dynamics at the landscape level, we develop a submodel of stand-level forest dynamics that responds to the landscape-level processes in a spatially explicit landscape model. Compared to the LANDIS model that we used as a starting point, our approach incorporates, in a spatially explicit and quantitative manner: (1) stand-level prediction of basal area and tree volume, and (2) seed dispersal, and sexual and asexual regeneration. Stand development is partly based on growth tables given as model input which means that stand submodel behavior is constrained within a reasonable range. We tested the approach in simulating the development of mixed boreal forests of Quebec, Canada. The simulations demonstrate that stand dynamics can be calibrated to match specific targets and that responses to changes in the initial conditions are realistic. This new modeling approach should allow addressing various theoretical questions and developing, as well as testing, alternative silvicultural and forest management scenarios.