Spatial-temporal variation of economic resilience and its influencing factors under COVID-19: Evidence from Henan province, China

Abstract

In order to explore the impact of COVID-19 on regional economy, the resilience characteristics of regional economy and influencing factors, this paper takes Henan province as an example and innovatively employ PSR and SBM model to measure the economic resilience of 18 areas in Henan province under the epidemic. The results show that (1) after the outbreak of COVID-19, the economic resilience of Henan province reduced with a tiny interannual variation, the distribution of resilience shifted from concentration to dispersion.(2) The economic resilience was higher in the central, west and south, and lower in the north and east. (3)Generally speaking, the economic resilience in Henan province did not significantly show certain spatial correlation, but formed an obvious "circle structure". The surrounding areas of Zhengzhou belonged to the "first circle", where the economic resilience was in the low-high cluster area and had a negative relationship. Areas outside the "first circle" gathered in the outer edge and formed the "second circle", where the economic resilience was in the low-low agglomeration area, with significant positive spatial spillover effect. (4) The level of health services had the strongest influence and GDP per capita played a fundamental role in improving economic resilience. This study is helpful for the policymakers to formulate relevant policies to improve economic resilience under public health emergencies in the future.