Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Grain Yield per Unit Area and its Balanced Increasing Potential in China

Liu Yu,Pan Yuchun,Zhou Yanbing

doi:10.19026/ajfst.7.1359

Abstract

The aim of this study is to provide assistance decision for grain yield in China, which can provide basis for reasonable layout of grain production project. Based on the statistical data of 2301 counties in China, using spatial autocorrelation analysis method, spatial changes of grain yield per unit area at county level in China during 1990-2010 were discussed and then the increase potential of grain yield per hectare and total yield at regional scale were calculated. The results showed that: (1) Grain yield per unit area at county level showed the evident pattern High in the northern while low in the southern and High in the eastern and western while low in the middle; The average grain yield per hectare increased by 1040.74 kg/hm 2 during 1990-2010 and the increment of grain yield per unit area descended from North to South at county level. (2) Grain yield per unit area at county level in China had a strong spatial autocorrelation. The counties with High-High and Low-Low correlation were the majority. Counties with significant High-High correlation in 2010 were mostly located in plain area, while counties with significant Low-Low correlation were mainly distributed in Hengduan Mountainous Area, Inner Mongolia steppe Area, etc. (3) Two thousand three hundred and one counties were divided into 41 first-grade regions and 115 sec- grade regions according to the coupled conditions of cultivation system regionalization and LISA cluster map. The total potential output of China was 1.77×10 8 tons.

Highlights

Grain yield continues to increase steadily is the basic guarantee for food security, which is important to world stability and social development (Rondaninia et al, 2012)
This study makes comprehensive consideration of LISA diagram for per unit area yield and divides yield-increasing type areas according to cultivation system regions, sets the highest per unit area yield of the county in each type area as its target per unit area yield of the type area and estimates yieldincreasing potential according to yield gap between actual per unit area yield and target per unit area yield of each county: I =
Whole country was divided into 41 primary regions and 115 secondary regions based on LISA distribution diagram of cultivation system regions and per unit area yield of grain at county scale, total yield potential in China was 1.77×108 t

Summary

Introduction

Grain yield continues to increase steadily is the basic guarantee for food security, which is important to world stability and social development (Rondaninia et al, 2012). In order to provide scientific basis for grain yield planning and efficient utilization of agricultural resources, systematic analysis of spatial-temporal differentiation of grain yield per unit area, scientific calculation of improvement in potential yield of regional grain should be taken (Bai et al, 2013). Domestic and foreign scholars have made depth analysis of spatial-temporal pattern, influencing factors and yield-increasing potential of per unit area from different perspectives (He et al, 2008; Cheng, 2009). With the diversification of data acquisition methods and more attention paying to "spatial interaction", more researches are focusing on per unit area yield of grain and spatial heterogeneity of input factors by spatial economic model (Cheng et al, 2007). In order to provide assistance support for grain yield in China, this

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Conclusion