Spatial-temporal patterns of high-temperature and drought during the maize growing season under current and future climate changes in northeast China.

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events in the maize growing season in northeast China are increasing. In order to clarify the occurrence characteristics of extreme meteorological events in northeast China, this study focused on three extreme agrometeorological events, i.e., high temperatures, drought, and the compound events of high-temperature and drought during the maize growing season (May-September), impacting maize production. Based on historical (1981-2017) and future (2021-2060) climate data, we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of these three events with different intensities in northeast China. The results indicated that slight high-temperatures and moderate and severe droughts occurred more frequently in the study area during the historical period. The frequency of the different grades of the compound events of high-temperature and drought will exhibit an increasing trend in the future, as will the frequency of the compound events of high-temperature and drought. This is particularly evident in the northwest of the study area. The compound events of high-temperature and drought mainly occurred in late July and early August, encompassing the flowering stage of maize varieties. It is important to identify the area and time of major extreme weather events to implement the necessary preventive measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.