Spatial–Temporal Patterns and Propagation Dynamics of Ecological Drought in the North China Plain

Abstract

With the increasingly prominent ecological environmental problems, the ecological drought phenomenon will become the focus of drought research. The spatial–temporal pattern of ecological drought and its complicated propagation dynamics are still unclear in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, the spatio–temporal patterns and gridded trend characteristics of ecological drought were investigated from 1999 to 2019 in the NCP. Subsequently, the propagation dynamics from meteorological to ecological drought were identified for the study period. The results indicated that: (1) the ecological drought showed a downward trend from 1999 to 2019 in the NCP, with a 4.2-year and 7-year period on the inter-annual scale; (2) the most serious ecological drought occurred in the year of 2002, with an average monthly vegetation condition index (VCI) ranging from 0.17 (in December) to 0.59 (in January); (3) ecological droughts were decreasing in each month and season at the grid scale; (4) the propagation time from meteorological to ecological drought was 2.67 months in winter and 1.33 months in summer, which is helpful for predicting the occurrence of ecological drought. This study sheds new viewpoints into the spatial–temporal patterns and propagation dynamics of ecological drought in the NCP, which can also be applied in Northeast China.