Spatial-temporal patterns and driving mechanism of rural vulnerability at county level：A case study of 117 counties in Heilongjiang Province, China

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Rural vulnerability is used to understand the potential multi-hazard threats and describe the fragile state of rural areas, which engage decision-makers in developing policies and strategies to reduce vulnerability. Existing studies about rural vulnerability focused on the single exogenous disturbance but paid inadequate attention to the multi-disturbances of rural coupled human-environment system. In addition, current studies mainly analyzed the spatial differentiation of vulnerability degree, ignoring the temporal evolution and the internal elements’ relationships of rural systems. In this study, we structured the cognition of rural vulnerability with a framework for understanding coupled human-environment system, evaluated rural vulnerability with the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, and analyzed the driving mechanism based on spatial-temporal heterogeneity. Taking 117 county units in Heilongjiang Province as study cases, we found that (1) rural vulnerability was indeed significant, as the area of county units with extreme or high vulnerability levels accounts for 50.4% of the total area, indicating a trend of high vulnerability in the counties on the north and south sides and low vulnerability in the center. (2) The spatial-temporal heterogeneity of rural vulnerability presented a clustering trend, shifting from a relatively balanced spatial distribution from 2010 to 2013 to a state of vulnerability aggregation at all levels from 2016 to 2019. (3) Rural vulnerability was mainly affected by changes in the principal factors of sensitivity and adaptability, and driving sources mainly generated by human activities, which was largely derived from rural construction activities and government policy guidance on rural regulation. Based on the results, we classified county units into different rural vulnerability types, put forward a rural resilience planning mode of “General + Special” with planning strategies for each type, which can be used as a reference for rural planning positioning of county and township level land spatial planning in the national territory spatial planning.