Spatial - temporal mapping of urine cadmium levels in China during 1980 - 2040: Dietary improvements lower exposure amid rising pollution

Abstract

Persistent cadmium exposure poses significant health risks to the Chinese population, underscored by its prevalence as an environmental contaminant. This study leverages a machine-learning model, fed with a comprehensive dataset of environmental and socio-economic factors, to delineate trends in cadmium exposure from 1980 to 2040. We uncovered that urinary cadmium levels peaked at 1.09 μg/g Cr in the mid-2000 s. Encouragingly, a decline is projected to 0.92 μg/g Cr by 2025, tapering further to 0.87 μg/g Cr by 2040. Despite this trend, regions heavily influenced by industrialization, such as Hunan and Guizhou, as well as industrial counties in Jilin, report stubbornly high levels of exposure. Our demographic analysis reveals a higher vulnerability among adults & adolescents over 14, with males displaying elevated cadmium concentrations. Alarmingly, the projected data suggests that by 2040, an estimated 41% of the population will endure exposure beyond the safety threshold set by the European Food Safety Authority. Our research indicates disproportionate cadmium exposure impacts, necessitating targeted interventions and policy reforms to protect vulnerable groups and public health in China.