Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of multidimensional urban shrinkage in China and its impact on urban form

Abstract

The scientific recognition of urban shrinkage patterns and their impacts is crucial for urban economic development and building harmonious relationships between people and the environment. This study, through the construction of a multidimensional evaluation system for urban shrinkage, provides a systematic analysis of the spatial patterns and evolution of urban shrinkage in China from 2000 to 2020, and examines the effects of urban shrinkage on the evolution of urban form. The findings suggest that: (i) The trend of urban shrinkage in China is worsening, with shrinking cities primarily located in the peripheral areas of growth poles and the northeast region, often exhibiting a simultaneous shrinkage in population, economy, and society; (ii) Urban shrinkage, especially population and economic shrinkage, has a growing influence on urban form, leading to a reduction in the speed and scale of urban land expansion and a decrease in the number of urban patches; (iii) There is a spatial mismatch between the level of urban shrinkage and urban form indicators, particularly in some cities where a paradox of population loss, economic decline, and urban land expansion coexist. This contradiction severely violates the laws of urban development and poses a threat to the construction of new-type urbanization.