Spatial–Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Agro-Pastoral Region in Western China: A Case Study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Abstract

Landscape ecological risk assessment can reflect the impact of landscape pattern on ecological processes and functions, and has become an important method for predicting and measuring the quality and dynamic evolution of the ecological environment. Studying the trend of landscape ecological risk evolution is important for optimizing the regional landscape pattern and maintaining the sustainable development of the ecological environment in ecologically fragile areas. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is a typical agro-pastoral region in northern China, which is facing prominent ecological and environmental problems such as soil erosion and land desertification. With the environmental problems becoming more and more serious, the ecological risk also poses increasing potential danger, which becomes one of the bottlenecks restricting regional economic development. This paper selects Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the study area. Based on land use data in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, the landscape ecological risk assessment model is built from the perspective of landscape ecology, and combines the spatial statistical analysis method and the gravity shift model to explore the spatial–temporal evolution of the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risk. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the area of farmland and grasslands has decreased, and the area of forest, water, and settlement has increased; (2) The transformation of land-use types is mainly distributed in the central northern plain and the south valley, where human activities are intensive. The transfer relationship among different land-use types is mainly between grasslands and farmland; (3) The hotspots and aggregation area of landscape ecological risk are mainly distributed along the city belt and irrigated agricultural areas along the Yellow River in the northern Ningxia Plain; (4) From 2000 to 2005, the landscape ecological risk level decreased, and from 2005 to 2015, the landscape ecological risk index continued to rise. We conclude that the natural environment of Ningxia determines the characteristics of the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk, while the use and modification of land through human activities are the main driving factors of landscape ecological risk change. The results of landscape ecological risk assessment at different scales based on the landscape index will provide support for regional environmental management.