Spatial-temporal distribution feature of measles in Zhejiang province, 2013

Abstract

To study the spatial-temporal dynamical features of measles in Zhejiang province. Data was from the China Disease Surveillance Information System and China Immunization Program Information Management System. Power-law method on spatial-temporal-multicomponent model was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of measles in the districts of Zhejiang province. The incidence of measles in Zhejiang province was 2.72/100 000 (1 494 cases) in 2013. Compared to the first order adjacent matrix, Power-law method showed a lower value of Akaike information criterion. The follow-up impact from the previous measles epidemic was strong to the Keqiao, Xiaoshan and Yuecheng districts with the autoregressive component as 1.39, 0.88 and 0.77, respectively. Local risk of measles seemed high in Keqiao, Qujiang and Xiaoshan districts with the endemic component as 4.06, 3.74 and 3.55, respectively. Impact of the epidemic to the nearby districts was large in Keqiao, Shangyu districts and Jiande city with epidemic components as 3.08, 2.54 and 2.21, respectively. The spatial-temporal feature of measles in several districts of Zhejiang province appeared heterogeneous, suggesting the specific strategies should be taken to control the epidemics of measles.