Spatial-temporal cluster of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hebei province, 2005-2016

Abstract

Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hebei province from 2005 to 2016. Methods: Records of HFRS cases reported from each county in Hebei during January 2005 to December 2016 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). Global and local spatial association statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation and software GeoDa 1.2.0. Software SaTScan 9.4.1 was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to visualize the yearly scan results. Results: In Hebei province, a total of 8 437 human HFRS cases reported from 170 counties with an annual incidence rate of 0.99/100 000 population during 2005-2016. The peak incidence season was spring. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence of HFRS at county-level showed that the value of Moran's I were all above 0 (P<0.05), indicating that the significant spatial cluster. The result of local indicators on spatial association (LISA) analysis revealed that identified hot spots were mainly in northeastern area, while cold spots were found in some counties of central and southern areas. Spatial-temporal scan detected that the primary cluster of HFRS incidence was mainly distributed in Qinhuangdao city and Tangshan city, including 11 counties (city/district): Beidaihe district, Haigang district, Funing district, Shanhaiguan district, Changli county, Lulong county and Qinglong Manchu autonomous county in Qinhuangdao city, and Qian'an city, Laoting county, Luanzhou city and Luannan county in Tangshan city (RR=39.64, P<0.001), during January-July in 2005. Conclusions: There were significant spatial-temporal cluster of HFRS in Hebei from 2005 to 2016. The cluster areas of HFRS were mainly in northeastern Hebei, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control programs of HFRS in these areas.