Abstract
In the context of global warming, a key scientific question for the sustainable development of the Arctic tourism industry is whether the region’s climate is becoming more suitable for tourism. Based on the ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) dataset from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this study used statistical methods such as climatic tendency rate and RAPS to analyze the spatial-temporal changes in Arctic summer climate comfort zones from 1979 to 2019 and to explore the influence of changes in climate comfort on Arctic tourism. The results showed the following: (1) With the increase in the Arctic summer temperature, the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) rose significantly from 1979 to 2019 at a rate of 0.457 °C/10a. There was an abrupt change in 2001, when the climate comfort changed from “colder” to “cool”, and the climate comfort has remained cool over the past decade (2010–2019). (2) With the increase in Arctic summer temperatures, the area assessed as “comfortable” increased significantly from 1979 to 2019 at a rate of 2.114 × 105 km2/10a. Compared with the comfortable area in the 1980s, the comfortable area increased by 6.353 × 105 km2 over the past 10 years and expanded to high-latitude and high-altitude areas, mainly in Kola Peninsula, Putorana Plateau, and Verkhoyansk Mountains in Russia, as well as the Brooks Mountains in Alaska. (3) With the increase in Arctic summer temperatures, the number of days rated comfortable on 30% of the grid increased significantly from 1979 to 2019 (maximum increase: 31 days). The spatial range of the area with a low level of comfortable days narrowed and the spatial range of the area with a high level of such days expanded. The area with 60–70 comfortable days increased the most (4.57 × 105 km2). The results of this study suggest that global warming exerts a significant influence on the Arctic summer climate comfort level and provides favorable conditions for further development of regional tourism resources.
Highlights
The results of Rescaled Adjusted Partial SUMS (RAPS) analysis showed (Figure 3b) that there was an obvious change in the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) value in the Arctic summer in 2000, which indicates that a transformation occurred in the comfort level in the early 21st century
Further analysis reveals that the UTCI value was −0.501 ◦ C
After the abrupt change (2001–2019), the UTCI value was 0.634 ◦ C and the comfort level was “cool”, which indicates that there was an obvious change in the comfort level of the Arctic summer in the
Summary
According to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. The report in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment pointed out that, in the context of global warming, climate change in the Arctic is mainly manifested in the melting of ice sheets in the Arctic, the continuous decrease in the volume of snow and frozen soil in the Northern Hemisphere, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, and the significant changes in the ecosystem in the Arctic [2]. Sustainability 2021, 13, 13056 on our lives, our world, and on tourism [3]. Climate change has affected the length and quality of the tourist season, the choice and consumption of tourist destinations, the decision making of tourist activities, and the operating costs of the tourism industry [4]
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