Evaluation of the ERA5-based UTCI on mortality data in Europe

Abstract

TPS 664: Climate change: temperature effects 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM The study was conducted on behalf of the MCC Collaborative Research Network (http://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/). Background: ERA5 is a novel climate reanalysis product from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). It provides estimates of surface and atmospheric parameters at much higher resolution (31 x 31 km) than any previous climate reanalyses. Methods: From ERA5 parameters the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) can be computed as a gridded parameter at the ERA5 resolution for the whole European continent. Using daily mortality data from European members of the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we will explore the potential of the ERA5-based UTCI as a health-related tool by evaluating UTCI-mortality relationships in 20 cities across 10 European countries. Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) will be used to analyse exposure-response relationships between mortality and UTCI in selected cities calculated from (i) the ERA5 reanalysis and (ii) station-based data. Results: Preliminary results suggest that both ERA5- and station-based UTCI explain mortality in European cities in a comparable way. Conclusions: The comparison of the exposure-response relationships between the ERA5- and station-based UTCI is an important step towards the development of a pan-European health-hazard warning system that would be able to assess thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.