Spatial–temporal characteristics and scenario simulation of carbon emissions from energy consumption based on multiscale in the affected areas of the lower Yellow River

Abstract

Abstract The future development of the world is threatened due to global warming and climate change mainly driven by carbon emissions. Conducting an extensive study on the influencing factors of regional energy consumption and prediction through scenario simulation is of great significance for China in order to meet its aim of achieving carbon peak by 2030. The affected areas of the lower Yellow River are one of the main grain-producing areas in China, and it is facing a strong demand for urbanization and rapid economic development. Based on the night light data, this study demonstrates that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the study area showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2018 with obvious spatial distribution differences. Economic development had a significant positive effect on the increase in carbon emissions from energy consumption; energy consumption intensity showed a significant negative effect. The study area achieves the carbon peak target in 2027 only under the low-carbon scenario. This study is helpful to realize ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin and also has reference significance for other developing countries.