Spatial-temporal analysis of urban climate dynamics in major Hungarian cities

Abstract

Increasing heatwaves are making cities and their populations more vulnerable, parallel to urban sprawl and the aging population in Hungary. The increasing number of hot days is predicted to worsen urban climate anomalies at the local scale, which, in parallel with changing land use patterns, may contribute to a significant increase in vulnerability to heatwaves. Local stakeholders and decision-makers need to understand the critical role of spatiotemporal land use—land cover (LULC) patterns and urban climate aspects to address relevant challenges for urban development. The current literature does not contain a synthesis analysis of major Hungarian cities that includes urban climate and sustainability findings hand by hand; therefore, this study aims to analyze LULC patterns, urban hotspots and surface urban heat island effects. In addition, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was determined as an important indicator for assessing the health and density of green spaces in major Hungarian cities from 2006 to 2018 using remote sensing data. Our results show that each city experienced significant urban sprawl, while above-average NDVI areas decreased over time. The average increase in the share of built-up areas was 1.3% from 2006 to 2018, while the calculated average decline in agricultural areas was 2%, so the expansion of residential areas and artificial areas is not the only driving force of this shrinking trend in agricultural areas. Furthermore, we found that urban hotspots are generally concentrated in industrial areas and represent new spaces of heat islands on the outskirts of cities. Székesfehérvár has the most intense industrial heat islands, with the largest proportion of urban hotspots (approximately 3.5% of the total area) concentrated in industrial zones. Our study contributes to uncovering inter-urban processes of land use patterns and urban climate issues in major Hungarian cities, moreover revealing sustainability-related issues from a lock-in perspective.