Abstract
This paper reports on research in population ecology and suggests ways it might be useful in explaining spatial dynamics of states, groups, and world-systems. In particular it focuses on how and why populations at opposite of ends of Afroeurasia come to rise and fall simultaneously over long periods of time. We call for exploration of research in population ecology for understanding world-system evolution and suggest directions for possible future research.
Highlights
Political processes within world-systems are often characterized by cycles or waves
The most discussed global exogenous factor in ecology is climatic variation. It is a quintessentially exogenous process because variation in temperature and rainfall can have a very strong effect on survival and reproduction of organisms, while fluctuations in organism population numbers almost never have an effect on weather, especially on the short time scales of interest to population dynamicists
Spatial synchrony is promoted when two local systems are driven by similar dynamical mechanisms
Summary
Political processes within world-systems are often characterized by cycles or waves. Chiefdoms cycle (Anderson 1994, 1996), empires rise and fall, and the modern state system undergoes “power cycle” or “hegemonic sequence.” all world-systems “pulsate”—expand rapidly, more slowly, or even contract (Chase-Dunn and Hall 1997, 2000). Many ecological studies are highly analytical, and current standards of scientific rigor in the discipline (especially in the study of population oscillations and spatial synchrony) require translation of verbal hypotheses into mathematical equations. “first-cut” models can be investigated mathematically as to the consequences of relaxing the initial assumptions for theoretical predictions Repeated applications of this process can extend theory and simultaneously increase confidence in the answers that it provides. The process of bringing spatially distant oscillations into phase by weak exogenous influences is sometimes called “entraining” or “phase-locking.” This insight, in particular, is suggestive for possible explanations for the synchrony of population and citysize changes in east and west Asia. We discuss directions for future research suggested by the theory, and, in particular, how some of these hypotheses might be tested with data
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