Spatial Optimization Based on the Trade-Off between Ecosystem Conservation and Opportunity Cost of Tarim National Park in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

National parks (NPs) are the flagship protected areas in China’s conservation network and play a key role in the ecological protection of core objects and important natural landscapes. However, the shortage of spatial optimization methods based on quantitative indicators has limited the spatially explicit identification of national parks. Therefore, in this study, we selected the main area of the Tarim River (MTR) in Xinjiang as an example to optimize the spatial boundary of a national park. We constructed an evaluation system based on representativeness, ecological importance, and the foundation of the existing protected area. Subsequently, we comprehensively employed a species distribution model to simulate the habitat of the primary conservation targets. Additionally, we spatially optimized the region using an integer linear model, considering multiple scenarios. The results of this study show that fewer than 30% of the existing protected areas in the MTR protect conservation objects. Using different protection objects and quantitative goals, the spatial optimization results for the eight protection scenarios show that the most effective national park establishment scenario covers a total area of 15,009.3 km2, which is 8157.5 km2 more than the protected area already in place and would include the Tarim Populus National Nature Reserve and Luntai Tarim Populus Forest Park. The opportunity cost to be paid for protection according to this boundary is approximately USD 115.14 million. The protection ratios of each protection object for the expanded park are more than 50%, which is 27.7% higher than the protection effect produced by the existing protected area, so we recommend that Tarim National Park be set up on the basis of this boundary.