Spatial mismatch and its evolution of new energy consumption, industrial structure upgrading, and carbon carrying capacity.

Abstract

In view of the problems of insufficient exploitation of carbon emission reduction potential and low-carbon emission reduction efficiency caused by the spatial mismatch of economy, society, and ecological environment, this study used the ArcGIS10.8 intuitive expression tool, the barycenter model, and the spatial mismatch index to systematically investigate the spatial-temporal pattern and its spatial mismatch characteristics of new energy consumption, industrial structure upgrading, and carbon carrying capacity in 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019. The findings of this study included mainly the following aspects. (1) The new energy consumption level showed the significant differences in spatial aggregation. The industrial structure upgrading level decreased from the southeast to the northwest. The carbon carrying state showed the gradual geographical evolution characteristics of the empty load, suitable basic load, suitable load, and overload from the southeast to the northwest. (2) The barycenter of new energy consumption shifted from the south to the north; the barycenter of industrial structure upgrading presented a phased migration trajectory of first to the northwest, then to the south, and then to the southwest; the barycenter of carbon carrying capacity oscillated from the southwest to the northeast. (3) Provinces with the positive mismatch of new energy consumption, industrial structure upgrading, and carbon carrying capacity were widely distributed, but provinces with the negative mismatch were sporadically distributed. The spatial mismatch degree of the three elements tended to expand on the whole, but the direction and magnitude of change were different. The high mismatch areas showed a trend of agglomeration in eastern coastal economic circles such as the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta. Moreover, the high mismatch areas showed a trend of westward spread. (4) The contribution of province to the overall spatial mismatch decreased from the eastern to the western. This study would provide a reference for the related research on carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and the coordinated high-quality development between economy-society and ecological environment.