Spatial interaction effects on the relationship between agricultural economic and planting non-point source pollution in China.

Abstract

Solving the contradiction between agricultural economic growth and agricultural environmental problems is a difficult problem in regional environmental governance. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2019, spatial Dubin model (SDM) is used to analyze the influence of agricultural economic growth and other factors on planting non-point source pollution. Innovate from the perspective of research objects and research methods, and the research results show (1) In the past 20years, the amount of fertilizer applied and crop straw yield increased continuously. Through the fertilizer and farmland solid waste discharge of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD), calculation of the equal-standard discharges of planting non-point source pollution shows that China's planting non-point source pollution is serious. Among the investigated areas in 2019, the equal-standard discharges of planting non-point source pollution in Heilongjiang Province were the highest and have reached 24.35 × 1010 m3. (2) The global Moran index of 20years in the study area shows obvious spatial aggregation and diffusion characteristics, and has a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation, indicating that planting non-point source pollution discharges of the study area have potential interdependence in space. (3) SDM time-fixed effect model showed that the equal-standard discharges of planting non-point source pollution had a significant negative spatial spillover effect, and the spatial lag coefficient was - 0.11. Among the influencing factors, agricultural economic growth, technological progress, financial support to agriculture level, consumption capacity, industrial structure, and risk perception have significant spatial spillover effects on planting non-point source pollution. The results of effect decomposition show that the positive spatial spillover effect of agricultural economic growth on adjacent areas is greater than the negative effect on the local area. Based on the analysis of significant influencing factors, the paper provides direction guidance for the formulation of planting non-point source pollution control policy.