Spatiotemporal evolution and key driver analysis of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects in China

Abstract

In recent years, ozone (O3) has emerged as the primary air pollutant in China, superseding PM2.5. Previous studies have concentrated on the spatiotemporal variation of ozone pollution, the analysis of its sources and drivers, as well as its environmental impacts and health benefits. Since ozone pollution can be dynamically transferred through industrial activities and meteorological factors, it is crucial to scientifically identify the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of ozone pollution in China. However, existing studies have not yet addressed this issue. Therefore, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and the spatial spillover of ozone pollution by means of the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2020 in this study. The dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) was employed to reveal the key drivers of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects. The direct and spillover effects of each driver on ozone pollution are systematically analyzed. The results show that from 2013 to 2020 ozone concentrations followed a fluctuating upward trend at national and provincial scales. Ozone pollution presented significant spatial spillover and path dependence effects. The direct effects indicated that economic growth, technological level, industrial structure, energy structure, ventilation coefficient, relative humidity and precipitation were the key drivers of local ozone pollution. The spillover effects indicated that population density, technology level, industrial structure, environmental regulations, ventilation coefficient, sunshine hours and relative humidity had significant spatial spillover effects on ozone pollution of surrounding regions. These findings will contribute to the understanding of the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of O3 pollution, and provide scientific guidance for regional synergy and long-term ozone control policies in China.