Spatial economic impacts of new town development in Hong Kong: A GIS-based shift-share analysis

Abstract

This paper models the impacts of public decision making through a new analytic framework based on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and an extended shift-share analysis. The research is set within the context of Erickson's new model on the suburban economy, allowing study of the spatial economic impacts of new town development in Hong Kong for the period 1966–1986. Development patterns for the period 1986–2006 are analyzed using the same approach with three different development scenarios. It was found that Hong Kong's public housing-led new town development strategy has stimulated occurrence of the first spillover/specialization stage in the Erickson model, although the second dispersal/diversification stage has yet to be achieved. In the absence of a concomitant policy to disperse employment, new town development in Hong Kong has resulted in a mismatch between place of residence and place of work, leading to a polarization between white-collar jobs concentrated in the older urban areas and blue-collar jobs in the newer towns. Results indicate that the second stage of Erickson's model may be achieved if Hong Kong maintains its current growth momentum. However, the current concentrated development strategy of the Hong Kong government may jeopardize the development of self-contained/self-balanced new towns, possibly leading to further overcrowding in central urban areas. Such a concentrated strategy may also deter the further integration of Hong Kong with the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in China.