Spatial distribution and risk areas of foot and mouth disease in mainland China

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infectious disease in animal, which affects regional economies and food security of many countries. A total of 109 FMD outbreaks in China (from 2010 to 2019) were assessed. To investigate whether the FMD outbreaks were significantly aggregated in China, spatio-temporal cluster analysis was performed. A MaxEnt model was established to identify high risk areas for FMD in China and to identify relevant risk factors. As a result, both the FMD serotype A and O had one cluster each. Roads density, isothermality, UV-B seasonality and railways density were identified as important factors that affect the occurrence of FMD serotype A. The minimum temperature of the coldest month contributed most to FMD serotype O outbreak, followed by railways density and markets distribution. This study may provide useful information for decision makers for the tailoring of a risk-based surveillance of FMD in China.