Spatial differentiation and functional zoning of carbon budget: evidence from Jiangxi Province

As an important province in China with a large population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, Henan Province is in a period of attack and opportunity for low-carbon transformation of its economy and optimization of its energy structure, and carrying out a study on the assessment of carbon budget and carbon compensation at the county level, to promote the coordinated development of a low-carbon economy in central China and to realize China's vision of carbon neutrality by 2060, is important. The study selected 123 county-level units in Henan Province as the research object, based on the land use data of Henan Province from 2000 to 2020, constructed the carbon balance estimation model and measured the horizontal compensation standard with the help of the modified carbon compensation model, studied the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon balance and carbon compensation zoning of Henan Province under the perspective of the main functional area, and put forward the regional development strategy guided by the development of low-carbon economy. The research results demonstrated that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the total amount of carbon emissions from land use in Henan Province first increased and then decreased, with the peak in 2015, and the construction land was the major source of carbon. The amount of carbon absorption continued to grow steadily, and arable land and forest land were the major carriers of carbon sinks. The carbon budget showed significant spatial and temporal characteristics； carbon absorption showed a spatial pattern of "high in the west and low in the east, high in the south and low in the north；" and carbon emissions were spatially characterized by "a concentration of high values in the center and the north and a scattering of low values towards the outside." ② Henan Province exhibited similar spatial patterns in carbon intensity and net emissions, with high values in the central and northern regions tapering off outwards. From 2000 to 2020, carbon emission intensity ranked as follows： national key development zones （1.09） > provincial key areas （0.93） > agricultural areas （0.83） > provincial ecological zones （0.70） > national ecological zones （0.47）. For net carbon emissions, the order was （×104 t）： national key zones （165.94） > provincial key areas （52.55） > agricultural areas （-35.52） > provincial ecological zones （-47.11） > national ecological zones （-60.93）. Conversely, carbon compensation rates（%） were highest in provincial ecological zones （821）, followed by those in national ecological zones （773）, agricultural areas （412）, provincial key areas （198）, and lowest in national key zones （11）. ③ Carbon compensation varied significantly across 123 counties in Henan Province, with a total carbon payment of 9 207.09×104 yuan and offset of 4 819.29×104 yuan in 2020. A total of 45 payment zones and 78 compensation zones were identified, including 20 heavy payment zones and 30 heavy compensation zones. ④ Henan Province was divided into seven carbon intensity control areas, 33 total carbon control areas, 12 carbon balance areas, 12 low-carbon optimization areas, and 59 green carbon sink areas based on main functional areas. A regional optimization strategy was proposed to foster low-carbon economy development in Henan Province. The study offers insights for 123 counties in Henan Province to establish localized carbon compensation mechanisms, supporting the coordinated low-carbon economic development in central China and the pursuit of carbon neutrality.

Carbon compensation can guide human activities in reducing carbon emissions or increasing carbon sequestration and also represents an important approach for coordinating regional development. In this paper, Chongqing Municipality, whose internal development is varied, was selected as a case study. The annual carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, carbon deficits, and inter-regional carbon compensation costs from 2000 to 2021 were continuously estimated via local optimization methods, and a carbon compensation zoning scheme was proposed that integrates the present situation and trend analysis. The results show that (1) Chongqing’s total carbon emissions were greater than the total carbon sequestration, and the carbon deficit was approximately 556.24 × 104 t~3621.58 × 104 t. (2) County-level carbon budgets have large regional differences; the counties that should always receive carbon compensation are from the southeast and northeast regions, and the counties that should always pay carbon compensation are from central urban areas and the surrounding new urban areas. (3) All the counties were zoned into key payment areas, basic payment areas, key recipient areas, and basic recipient areas. The key payment areas, which account for 39.47%, maintain and grow payment status and are the main sources of carbon compensation costs, while the key recipient areas, which account for 44.74%, maintained a negative compensation status and a continuous downward trend, meaning that they may receive increasing carbon compensation costs. This paper revealed inequities in carbon compensation and proposed a novel zoning solution, which can provide scientific reference and data support for further establishing inter-regional carbon compensation mechanisms.

A study case of China on inter-regional carbon compensation from the perspective of carbon neutrality

Accounting for carbon revenues and expenditures and determining functional zoning for carbon compensation are crucial for achieving regional low-carbon development and advancing the "dual-carbon" strategy. This study focuses on 200 county units in the Dongting Lake Basin, systematically evaluating the basin's carbon income and expenditure, and proposes strategies for functional zoning of carbon compensation. The findings are as follows： ① Over the past 20 years, carbon emissions in the Dongting Lake Basin have shown an overall upward trend, increasing from 132 million tons in 2000 to 499 million tons in 2020, while carbon absorption has remained relatively stable at around 200 million tons. Spatially, carbon emissions in the Dongting Lake Basin exhibited a distinct "higher in the east, lower in the west" distribution pattern, whereas carbon absorption aligned closely with the terrain's opening towards the north. ② The overall trend of carbon pressure in the Dongting Lake Basin has been increasing, indicating a growing risk of carbon imbalance. The spatial distribution of carbon pressure showed a pattern of "high in the east, low in the west, high in the north, and low in the south." Further comparison between the center of gravity of carbon pressure and the center of gravity of the economy revealed that their spatial locations were very close, yet their trajectories diverged latitudinally, indicating a spatial coupling relationship between carbon pressure and regional economic development, as well as a degree of differentiation. ③ Over the past 20 years, the low-carbon development zones and high-carbon source optimization zones in the Dongting Lake Basin have been shrinking, while the carbon sink functional zones and carbon source control zones have been expanding. This indicates a weakening of the ecological function of carbon sinks in the Dongting Lake Basin. Analysis of the transfer direction revealed that carbon function zoning mainly followed the paths of "low-carbon development zone → carbon sink functional area" and "high-carbon optimization area → carbon source control area," while carbon compensation zoning showed a trend of shifting from compensation areas to payment areas. In the future, a differentiated low-carbon development strategy should be implemented, and a cross-county （district） carbon compensation system should be established to promote synergistic regional ecological and environmental governance and high-quality development.

This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and balance characteristics of land use carbon budget, measure the value of carbon compensation, and delineate carbon compensation type zoning to provide scientific reference for further strengthening the connection between the construction of an ecological compensation system and the "dual carbon" target task. Based on the land cover data of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and balance relationship characteristics of the land use carbon budget. By using the revised carbon compensation model to measure the horizontal compensation standards, the normalized revealed comparative advantage （NRCA） index and K-means clustering analysis method were used to divide the carbon compensation area. The research results demonstrated that： ① the total land use carbon sequestration in Chongqing grew slowly from 2000 to 2020, whereas carbon emissions continued to increase significantly, and the net carbon emissions showed a distribution pattern of "high in the center and low in the two wings." ② The average coefficient of variation in Chongqing was 0.602, and the carbon emission economy contributive coefficient and carbon ecological support coefficient were concentrated between 0.64-1.14 and 0.00-32.86, respectively. The difference in the contribution of carbon emissions and economic benefits between districts and counties was relatively small, but there was a mismatch between carbon supply and demand. ③ A significant spatial difference existed in the value of carbon compensation, with a total of 1.098 billion yuan in carbon payment and 634 million yuan in carbon compensation, respectively. Moreover, it was ultimately determined that there were eight key payment areas, seven general payment areas, three key compensation areas, and 20 general compensation areas. In conclusion, the research results can provide a reference for implementing differentiated development strategies in different types of carbon compensation regions, improve the collaborative governance capacity of the regional ecological environment, and promote the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.

Carrying out carbon budget assessment and carbon compensation zoning research from inter-regional perspective can actively boost the formulation of green, low-carbon transformation strategies, guiding the flow of compensation credits, promoting regional equity and sustainable development, and realizing China’s “dual-carbon” goal. Huai River Eco-economic Belt is considered to be a typical example of how land use affects carbon budget due to its more drastic land changes. The paper uses the carbon emission coefficient method to analyze the carbon revenue and expenditure of kinds of land-use patterns, and constructs the carbon compensation model with the help of the carbon budget concentration index and the dominant comparative advantage index, and puts forward the carbon compensation zoning program. Results indicate that (1) Carbon emissions in the Huai River Eco-economic Belt are generally showing a downward trend, and carbon absorption rises modestly. (2) Carbon emissions exhibit a spatial distribution of higher in the western, northern and eastern regions and lower in the center zone, with large differences in carbon absorption among cities in the same year. (3) Carbon compensation types in the Huai River Eco-economic belt include 7 payment zones, 5 balanced zones and 14 compensated zones, which can be finally classified into 5 categories of carbon compensation space optimization areas by combining with the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and model for zoning of carbon compensation. Our study enriches practical approaches to reducing carbon emissions through land regulation from inter-regional scales.

This multiple case study analysis examines the extent to which five global car manufacturers apply carbon management strategies. Following a clear business strategy standpoint, the theoretical arguments are based on a framework developed by Orsato (2006). For this context, we highlight two key differences between carbon management and general environment strategies: the option of compensation and the demand for life-cycle efforts by stakeholders. Our analysis is based on eight carbon management strategies reflecting both carbon reduction and compensation strategies. The results show that the car manufacturers tend to embark on similar strategies in terms of carbon reductions, but less so for carbon compensation. Drawing on institutional theory, we explain this result by a lack of clearly established and widely expressed stakeholder expectations regarding carbon compensation. We conclude that carbon compensation may not yet be fully exploited and thus could be a short-term option when seeking competitive advantages in the automotive industry.

This study employs land use and energy consumption data from Gansu Province spanning the years 2005 to 2020 and utilizes models to estimate carbon emissions and the corresponding carbon compensation values. The research calculated the carbon emissions and compensation for various administrative regions over different time periods, revealing the following insights: (1) There is a notable increasing trend in net carbon emissions due to land-use changes in Gansu Province, characterized by an initial swift rise, followed by a more gradual growth pattern. Construction land is identified as the primary contributor to carbon emissions, increasing from 26 million tons in 2005 to 55.3 million tons in 2020, which is an increase of 1.80 times; meanwhile, forested areas, as significant carbon sinks, show a slight increase in carbon absorption from 2.33 million tons in 2005 to 2.35 million tons in 2020. (2) The municipalities with high net carbon emissions are predominantly Lanzhou, Qingyang City, and Jiuquan City, which are marked by high levels of carbon emissions and low compensation rates. In contrast, regions with lower net carbon emissions are mainly found in the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, where emissions are minimal and compensation rates are relatively high. A similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of both net carbon emission intensity and total net carbon emissions is observed among these cities. Alterations in land use have a significant impact on regional carbon emissions. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations of land-use change and carbon compensation in Gansu Province is essential for comprehending the dynamics of regional carbon emissions, developing effective emission reduction strategies, and fostering low-carbon development.

Rural development significantly contributes to global carbon emissions. While China’s dual-carbon goals are critical for global climate mitigation, surging rural emissions and regional disparities challenge their realization. Implementing village-scale horizontal carbon compensation zoning offers a strategic solution, though empirical evidence at this granularity remains scarce. Addressing this gap, this study conducts an empirical analysis of Laiyuan County in North China, integrating field data with village-scale carbon budget accounting. A multi-dimensional evaluation system was developed to classify and refine compensation zones. The results showed that (1) Laiyuan County exhibits a distinct “core–periphery” carbon budget pattern, with overall emissions exceeding carbon sinks. 46.6% of villages and 61.1% of townships are net carbon sources. Human respiration and domestic waste dominate the emission structure, while forests, grasslands, and shrublands provide the overwhelming majority of carbon sinks. Farmland contributes only limited sequestration, indicating an urgent need to enhance its sink capacity. (2) The multidimensional framework that incorporates Economic Contribution Coefficient (ECC), Carbon Emission Intensity (CEI), Ecological Support Coefficient (ESC), and Territorial Development Intensity (TDI) effectively guides compensation zoning, revealing positive CEI-TDI/ESC-ECC and U-shaped CEI-ECC/CEI-ESC relationships. These patterns underscore the necessity of integrated ecological–economic planning. (3) Villages can be systematically categorized into Payment Zones, Recipient Zones, and Equilibrium Zones. Integration with territorial planning further delineates 11 functional subregions, highlighting critical conflicts in subregions of Payment Zone-Permanent Basic Farmland and Payment Zone-Ecological Conservation Redline. This study advances methodologies for village-scale carbon management and provides actionable insights for achieving dual-carbon goals in rural areas of North China and beyond.

The differences in CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon compensation due to land use changes can provide a basis for formulating low-carbon development policies in various regions according to net CO2 emissions. Based on the land use and energy consumption data of Hunan Province from 2000 to 2020, the calculation model is constructed to calculate the CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon compensation values for different cities in different periods. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, there was a significant growth trend in the area of built-up land in Hunan Province, mainly from the forest and cropland, while the area of forest is relatively stable. (2) The net CO2 equivalent emissions from land use changes in Hunan Province shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing with an initially fast and then slowed growth rate. Built-up land is the main carbon source, and its CO2 equivalent emissions increased by 26.78 million tons, while the forest is the main carbon sink, and its carbon absorption decreased by 4.11 × 104 tons. (3) The carbon sink areas are mainly located in Zhangjiajie and Xiangxi in western Hunan, and the CO2 equivalent emission intensity of other carbon source areas is gradually increasing from eastern Hunan to southern Hunan. (4) The carbon compensation value is very similar to the spatial distribution of CO2 equivalent emissions in different cities. The high carbon compensation areas are mainly Yueyang, Loudi, and Xiangtan due to their backward energy structure, un-upgraded industrial structure, and large net CO2 equivalent emissions, while the high carbon compensation areas are mainly Changsha, due to its high economic development level, great technological progress, and small net CO2 equivalent emissions. To achieve regional coordination and low-carbon development, it is necessary to continually improve the carbon compensation mechanism and to build on carbon compensation to promote regional low-carbon coordinated development from a low-carbon level. Meanwhile, the government should rank and direct the transformation and development of different types of cities, to build a low-carbon land development model and achieve the goal of developing carbon neutrality.

Watershed carbon compensation based on land use change: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

A new framework for making carbon compensation standards considering regional differences at different scales in China

The temple gardens are an important human landscape and have an important position in the Chinese garden system. Using GIS analysis tools, primarily the Nearest Neighbor Index, Kernel Density Estimation, and Spatial Autocorrelation, and employing a Geographic Detector model, we analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of 4,317 temples and gardens in Jiangxi Province. Research shows that: 1) The spatial distribution type of temple gardens in Jiangxi Province is agglomeration type, with large spatial differences in distribution, forming a spatial distribution pattern of “generally dispersed and concentrated in some areas”; 2) the distribution of temple gardens in Jiangxi Province is uneven. They are mostly distributed in five prefecture-level cities: Ganzhou, Jiujiang, Shangrao, Fuzhou, and Nanchang; 3) The overall spatial distribution of temple gardens in Jiangxi Province has positive autocorrelation characteristics, and prefecture-level cities have significant proximity characteristics, forming a “high-high” “agglomeration” and “low-low agglomeration” distribution patterns; 4) Temple gardens in various regions are affected by geomorphological factors, and are mostly concentrated in the lower altitude range of 0–500 m and the gentle slope of 0°–30°. Most of the distribution density of temple gardens in various prefecture-level cities is within the buffer zone distance of the road network within the range of 0–1.5 km. 5) Economic, cultural, demographic, and historical factors have affected the development of temple gardens. Areas with more active economies have a denser number of temple gardens. The unique regional culture affects the distribution of temples and gardens in different regions. In places where the modern population is densely distributed, there are fewer temples and gardens, while in places where the population is less densely distributed, there are more temples and gardens. 6) The use of geographical detectors to detect influencing factors shows that the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of temple gardens in Jiangxi Province is the road network, followed by elevation, slope, GDP, and water systems. The research is conducive to scientific understanding of the distribution of temple gardens among prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province, and provides reference for strengthening the protection of temple gardens and exploring the tourism characteristics of temple gardens.

Implementing watershed carbon compensation under the constraint of fiscal imbalance is a crucial approach for China to achieve its “dual carbon” goals. Focusing on 257 counties within the Pearl River Basin (PRB), this paper first measured and modified the land use carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and the land use carbon budget (LUCB) from 2005 to 2020. Subsequently, their spatiotemporal patterns and the changes before and after the modifications were analyzed. Finally, this paper determined the subject–object, value, and priority order of carbon compensation using the modified LUCB as the baseline value, and a carbon compensation mechanism that combines vertical and horizontal directions was constructed. The following findings were obtained: (1) At the time scale, the proportion of construction land and forestland in the land use structure increased, and carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and the LUCB showed an overall upward trend from 2005 to 2020. (2) At the spatial scale, the areas with high carbon emissions and carbon deficits were mainly located in the lower reaches of the basin, whereas the areas with high carbon absorption and carbon surpluses were widely distributed in the upper and middle reaches. The carbon deficit in urban municipal districts and resource-based counties was relatively serious. (3) In 2020, the total amount of carbon compensation in the PRB was CNY −8088.61 million. The number of counties that needed to be paid and compensated was 75 and 182, respectively. The carbon compensation mechanism constructed in this paper can provide a reference for other countries and regions with financial imbalances to achieve regional carbon neutrality.

Climate change, driven by carbon emissions, has emerged as a pressing global ecological and environmental challenge. Here, we leverage the panel data of five provinces and above prefecture-level cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin to estimate the agricultural carbon emissions (CEs), carbon sinks (CSs), carbon compensation rate (CCR), and carbon compensation potential (CCP) from 2001 to 2022 and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics for this region. We propose an improved GLM-stacking ensemble learning method for CE prediction with limited sample data. The findings indicate the following: (i) From 2001 to 2022, the overall CEs show a trend of "development - decline - stabilization" and reach a peak of 172.54 Mt in 2005. CCR first exceeded the "CCR = 1" in 2008, which also indicates that reducing CEs and increasing CSs are the paths to achieving agricultural carbon neutrality. (ii) Although each province has achieved "net-zero emissions," the CCP of most urban agglomerations is about 0.5 and shows a certain agglomeration trend, indicating significant room for further carbon offset. (iii) The novel GLM-stacking model has higher prediction accuracy when compared to a single model. These findings provide scientific and technological support to realize the provincial dual carbon goals in China.