Spatial correlation evolution and prediction scenario of land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emission is an important driving factor of global warming and it has threatened the ecological environment and human survival. Among them, land use has led to significant carbon emissions that profoundly affect climate system change. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is one of the regions with the most concentrated contradictions in population, resources, and environment in China; thus, studying the current situation and land use carbon emissions (LUCE) is significant for mitigating global warming, promoting coordinated emission reduction among different regions in the basin, and achieving ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB. This study based on land use and socio-economic data, and is carried out from the perspective of social network analysis. The spatiotemporal variation of LUCE in the YRB was analyzed using the carbon emission coefficient method. The spatial spillover effects of LUCE were discussed using social network analysis methods. The PLUS model was used to simulate the differences in LUCE under different scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) The LUCE in the YRB showed an increasing trend during the study period, with significant differences in spatial distribution. (2) There is a significant spatial spillover effect and correlation between cities in the YRB LUCE network, and cities with superior economic had a greater impact on other cities. (3) In 2030, under the ecological protection scenario, the LUCE in the YRB were the lowest, with a reduction of 2.7 × 106 tons compared to the natural development scenario, further illustrating the importance of ecological land. Compared with previous studies, this study explores the spatial correlation between LUCE in various cities of the YRB from a new perspective of social network analysis. On the other hand, it makes land use prediction for 2030 by setting different land use development scenarios. The research results have broadened the application scope of social network analysis methods, and have important practical significance for promoting carbon reduction in major river basins and scientifically formulating land use policies.