Spatial correlation evolution and prediction scenario of land use carbon emissions in China

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions are the main drivers of global warming and extreme weather disasters caused by global warming have posed a threat to sustainable development and even to human survival. Land use has an important impact on carbon emissions and carbon storage. This study quantified land use carbon emissions, constructed land use carbon emission grid, and simulated future land use patterns under different scenarios in China during 2000–2018. Land use carbon emissions were found to increase by 400.29% in this period and were higher in the northeast. We discerned obvious spatial correlations between land use carbon emissions in various provinces of China and thus, recommended stronger inter-provincial cooperation in China to achieve overall emission reduction in the country. The carbon emissions spatial correlation network revealed that regions with superior economic and geographical location were in the center of the network. Compared with the carbon emissions in 2018, the simulated natural development scenario and ecological protection scenario indicated that the China's land use carbon emissions decreased in 2030. Thus, the results indicate that the individual provincial governance mode overlooked the spatial correlation between land use carbon emissions across various provinces, due to which these carbon emissions were not effectively reduced. The study highlighted the importance of ecological land protection, which is significant for promoting sustainable land use, increasing land use carbon sink, and reducing carbon emissions.