Spatial Configuration of Key Parliamentary Constituencies in the Republic of Korea in the XXI Century

Abstract

This article analyzes electoral competition between key parties in the Republic of Korea. Although the electoral geography of RoK is atypical, the presence of an almost two-party system and the use of single-member districts allow for the analysis of competition in Korean elections in the same context as in more studied countries such as the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. We define the stably swing constituencies in 2000-2020’s, their location and factors of high volatility. The overwhelming majority of districts which regularly change their political orientation are located in the north of the country — Capital Region and Chungcheon — where high competition is observed in the largest cities. Electoral differentiation of urban agglomerations is complex and subject to the influence of multiple factors, but several patterns can be identified. A significant portion of swing constituencies are in this state due to their location in transitional zones between areas with high support for candidates from the conservative camp (center and far periphery of the city) and their opponents (suburban semi-periphery). The main factor of differentiation is the electoral divide between different generations of voters. In small cities, the electorate of the main parties balances each other out, resulting in these constituencies regularly changing their party orientation. Some constituencies in the center of Seoul have special significance for both parties, so political heavyweights traditionally run in them, attracting attention to their constituencies and making them swing.