First year of COVID-19 in Brazil: Factors associated with the spread of COVID-19 in small and large cities.

Abstract

To test the association between sociodemographic and social characteristics with COVID-19 cases and deaths in small and large Brazilian cities. This ecological study included COVID-19 data available in State Health Secretaries (managed by brasil.io API) and three national databases (IBGE, DATASUS and Embrapa). Temporal spread of COVID-19 in Brazil during the first year considered as outcome: a) days until 1st case in each city since 1st in the country; b) days until 1,000 cases/100,000 inhabitants since 1st case in each city; c) days until 1st death until 50 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. Covariates included geographic region, city social and environmental characteristics, housing conditions, job characteristics, socioeconomic and inequalities characteristics, and health services and coverage. The analysis were stratified by city size into small (<100,000 inhabitants) and large cities (≥100,00 inhabitants). Multiple linear regressions were performed to test associations of all covariates to adjust to potential confounders. In small cities, the first cases were reported after 82.2 days and 1,000 cases/100,000 were reported after 117.8 days, whereas in large cities these milestones were reported after 32.1 and 127.7 days, respectively. For first death, small and large cities took 121.6 and 36.0 days, respectively. However, small cities were associated with more vulnerability factors to first case arrival in 1,000 cases/100,000 inhabitants, first death and 50 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. North and Northeast regions positively associated with faster COVID-19 incidence, whereas South and Southeast were least. Social and built environment characteristics and inequalities were associated with COVID-19 cases spread and mortality incidence in Brazilian cities.