Climatic factors associated with economic determinants significantly affect the spread of COVID-19 in tropical Brazil

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study investigates the spatial differences in the occurrence of COVID-19 in Brazilian Tropical Zone and its relationship with climatic, demographic, and economic factors based on data from February 2020 to May 2021. MethodsA Linear Regression Model with the GDP per capita, demographic density and climatic factors from 5.534 Brazilian cities with (sub)tropical climate was designed and used to explain the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. Main resultsThe model shows evidence that economic, demographic and climate factors maintain a relationship with the variation in the number of cases of COVID-19. The Köppen climate classification defines climatic regions by rainfall and temperature. Some studies have shown an association between temperature and humidity and the survival of SARS-CoV-2. In this cohort study, Brazilian cities located in tropical regions without a dry season (monthly rainfall > 60 mm) showed a greater prevalence than in cities located in tropical regions with a dry season (some monthly rainfall < 60 mm). ConclusionEmpirical evidence shows that the Brazil's tropical-climate cities differ in the number (contamination rate) of COVID-19 cases, mainly because of humidity. This study aims to alert the research community and public policy-makers to the trade-off between temperature and humidity for the stability of SARS-COV-2, and the implications for the spread of the virus in tropical climate zones.