Spatial autocorrelation and dispersal in mistletoes: field and simulation results

Abstract

The infections of two species of mistletoes in Baja California, Mexico were investigated for spatial patterns of abundance, and for an effect of the dispersal patterns of mistletoe seeds on these spatial patterns. Mistletoe distributions were mapped and the dispersal of mistletoe seeds was observed. Most mistletoes seeds were dispersed locally to the parent tree or to nearby trees. While mistletoe distributions were highly clumped at the level of the individual tree, no spatial pattern was found above the scale of the individual tree. Infected trees were no more clumped than the overall host population, and infected trees had no more mistletoes on nearby surrounding trees than did uninfected trees. Trees showed no spatial autocorrelation in the number of mistletoes they supported. Simulations using a spatially explicit simulation model with local dispersal and stochasticity in seed dispersal, host mortality, and mistletoe mortality were used to interpret the field results. Simulation results suggest that dispersal patterns affect the overall level of variance in the number of mistletoes per tree but do not lead to spatial patterns in abundance above the scale of the tree. Thus, both simulation and field systems give the surprising result that local dispersal does not lead to spatial autocorrelation in the numbers of mistletoes per tree.