Abstract
A numerical model is used to study the spatial and temporal variability of ice thickness in the Arctic. The model is run to cyclo-stationary equilibrium, forced with daily varying geostrophic winds and monthly varying surface air temperatures from 1951 to 1990. Decadal-average winter ice-thickness fields exhibit a trend of increasing ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea and somewhat thicker ice overall in the 1980s. Inter-annual variability was largest in the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas and generally lower in the Laptev Sea and central Arctic. Spatial correlation patterns show that ice thickness at a point is correlated with ice thickness over a surrounding area of roughly 4 × 105 km2 with a correlation coefficient of 0.7. Temporal auto-correlation functions indicate that the total ice volume has a correlation time-scale of roughly 7 years, while the volume of ice between 2 and 5 m thick and the volume of ice less than 1 m thick have correlation times of roughly 2 years and 2 months, respectively.
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