Abstract
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment.
Highlights
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear
To identify the different regions of the planet with suitable climatic conditions for fire activity, we compare the global distribution of climate indicators based on temperature and precipitation, with satellite-derived GFED4 burned area data[21] (Fig. 1)
The classification is made by contrasting the probability distribution of the climatic variables at data points associated with high fire activity vs. points with low fire activity within the main Köppen-Geiger categories
Summary
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Fire plays a role in some ecosystems, such as being a regulator of biomass in savanna biomes[5] It is used as a management tool in pastoral and agricultural areas with regular ignitions from humans[6]. Some studies point to increases in the severity of the fire season (FS)[17] and the wildfire potential[18], and a gradual shift to a global fire regime dominated by temperature[19], rather than precipitation or human factors, at the end of the 21st century. This study aims at (1) demonstrating that through simple climate indicators we can reproduce and explain the present global pattern of fire-prone regions and (2) subsequently use the trends in these indicators to infer future potential changes in the extent of fire activity. The underlying hypothesis is that, on broad spatial and decadal scales, there is a high probability of observed fire occurrence wherever a favourable climatic fire setting exists
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