Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Offset Rate and Prediction of Carbon Offset Potential in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above and provincial-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, respectively, this study measured the agricultural carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and carbon offset rates from 2006 to 2021 and analyzed their evolution characteristics. Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, this study identified the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, combined them with the scenario analysis method to predict the agricultural carbon emissions under the baseline scenario in the period of 2022 to 2025, and analyzed the process of "carbon peaking." Simultaneously, this study predicted the agricultural carbon sinks of 11 provinces and cities from 2022 to 2025 and then speculated their agricultural "carbon neutral" process under the framework of agricultural carbon compensation rate, so as to summarize the effective paths for different provinces and cities to achieve agricultural "carbon peak and carbon neutral." The results showed that： ① Changes in agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone during the observation period followed an inverted U-shape and peaked in 2015 at 33 312.65×104 tons. The fluctuation of agricultural carbon sinks was relatively small, with an overall upward trend. The upward trend of the agricultural carbon offset rate was obvious, but it still belonged to the "net carbon emission" region. ② Regional differences of agricultural carbon offsetting rate were prominent, and there was a polarization phenomenon, with "net carbon sink" cities significantly less than "net carbon emission" cities. ③ Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Sichuan reached the peak of agricultural carbon emissions in 2006, which Anhui and Chongqing reached in 2012, and the rest of the provinces and municipalities showed a clear upward trend. ④ Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan crossed the "agricultural carbon neutral line" and achieved agricultural carbon neutrality. Jiangsu was expected to achieve this in 2026-2030, whereas the remaining provinces and municipalities faced greater difficulties.