Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices

Abstract

Drought is considered a natural hazard and has become a recurrent phenomenon in Algeria since the 1970s. Algeria is characterized by three different climates, namely, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid climates. In this study, we aimed to spatiotemporally assess drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in the three climates of three sub-basins, namely, the Seybouse Maritime, Wadi Djelfa-Hadjia and Wadi M’Zi sub-basins. To this end, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) were used to evaluate drought physical characteristics on a 12-month timescale, based on precipitation and temperature monthly data covering the period of 1979–2019. High values of the coefficient of determination (R2) (0.76–0.99) confirmed by low values of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) (0.08–0.49) proved that the drought indices displayed a high correlation. Drought hazard and vulnerability were evaluated based on physical characteristics and socioeconomic aspects, respectively. The results led to the determination of a high correlation between the two indices used; the determination of the main drought events; and the mapping of the drought hazard, vulnerability and risk using a geographic information system (GIS). These findings suggest that the SPI provided the highest intensities, while the longest periods and the strongest magnitudes were given by the RDI. The spatiotemporal drought distributions varied with time from station to station and from sub-basin to sub-basin. Risk maps revealed that vulnerability based on socioeconomic factors controls drought risk.